It is not always nice to be proved right, especially if your prediction spells trouble for the sport you love. That’s the feeling I get as more British-based trainers look abroad to provide their owners with a chance to make a return on their investment in racing.
Back in June I highlighted the growing ambition of the Gulf nations to stage a co-ordinated racing circuit which made it attractive for horses trained across the northern hemisphere to be based in the Middle East from November through to March.
Where once the United Arab Emirates stood alone, now Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia all offer lucrative race programmes of their own and, by working together through the Gulf Cooperation Council to relax quarantine rules, any trainer who sets up a temporary base in one Gulf nation will now find it far easier to access races anywhere in the region.
Ian Williams was the first in Britain to lay his cards on the table with plans to set up a satellite yard in Dubai this winter. The domestic race programme there will be opened up to international runners for the first time this season, which was among the factors that prompted Williams to start putting together a team of around 12 horses to ship to the Middle East later in the year.
Comparing what the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia offer in purses to the prize-money up for grabs on the all-weather in Britain over the winter is like standing the Blackpool Tower next to the Burj Khalifa, and it seemed just a matter of time until more British-based trainers revealed similar plans to Williams.
In Monday's Racing Post George Baker, no stranger to racing abroad and among the first to tap into Bahrain's fixture list in recent years, revealed he is selling his yard in Britain as his focus turns increasingly to the Middle East.
Baker was at pains to say he is not turning his back on British racing, but the fact is he is willing to sell up in favour of leasing boxes for his team here because it fits better with his ambitions in the Gulf.
"Our owners have become very engaged in the options in the Middle East and that's not just Bahrain, but Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE as well," he said. "Because of that, we're going to have a much bigger satellite yard in Bahrain through this winter to target races there, but also head to the other places too."
In addition to Williams and Baker, Marco Botti revealed over the weekend he is also formulating plans for a satellite yard, which, as with Williams, will be based in Dubai. He hopes to have around 15 horses there this winter, but his ambition is to grow that number in the years to come.
"We're just finalising it and starting to put a team of horses together but the plan is to have a satellite yard in Dubai," said Botti. "Once they're there it will be easier to travel to nearby countries like Saudi and Bahrain. Hopefully we could put ten or 15 horses together to start with, and we can build on it from there."
The Ian Williams-trained Enemy works at the King Abdulaziz racecourse in Riyadh in FebruaryCredit: Francois Nel
When Williams staged his annual owners' day this month, there was a note from the trainer in the programme which summed up succinctly the gulf (excuse the pun) between our own prize-money and that on offer in the Middle East.
He pointed out that in his career, which includes a winner at every track in Britain among almost 1,500 victories on the Flat and over jumps on home soil, he has never earned as much from one race as he did when Enemy finished second in a handicap in Saudi Arabia in February. The six-year-old picked up an astonishing £416,666 in Riyadh, while the Japanese winner, Silver Sonic, earned £1.25 million. Remember we're talking about a handicap here.
"In fairness, some of the races in Britain are a little bit more appealing [than they were] on the all-weather and I can't say they're not trying," added Botti. "We'll still support it but there are still races [through the season] for £3,500 for three-year-olds, which is a little bit depressing. Other countries put good prize-money on the table and, when everything is so expensive, you've got to have some kind of a return. It's worrying for Britain."
The scale of ambition not only in Saudi Arabia but among the entire Gulf community is unrivalled. The Bahrain Trophy will be worth $1 million for the first time this year, prize-money for the Amir Trophy in Qatar has been boosted by 150 per cent, and Saudi Arabia will again put on the world's richest race in February.
There is also a desire in the UAE for it to remain the "regional centre" as the race programme around it becomes bigger and better. The Dubai Carnival has been extended to 14 meetings between November and March, with every fixture at Meydan in the 2023-24 campaign now open to international runners and worth more money. So while publication of next year's fixture list in Britain is delayed, our owners and trainers are being lured away to sunnier and far richer climes – and British racing will become less and less competitive as a result.
As one interested observer said last week: "Where would you rather be in winter, Lingfield in the wet or Dubai in the sunshine?"
Owners with Baker, Williams and Botti seem to have made their feelings clear, and more will surely follow."
We are not leaving.....
We are reacting and adapting to the headwinds....
I love racing in the UK. Whether it be saddling in midsummer sunshine at Royal Ascot or Goodwood, or in horizontal sleet on a January afternoon at Plumpton....
We are not leaving....
But we are determined to give our owners a shot or three at viable international prize money. Prize money that pays a year's fees. And more....
See you at Plumpton and Fontwell. And Goodwood and Ascot. And St Moritz. And across France. And in Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Dubai. And wherever else makes sense....
"Have Horse, Will Travel...."
